Fitch Ratings has maintained Tanzania’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘B+’ with a stable outlook.
The decision reflects sustained economic growth and continued fiscal discipline.
The move follows a similar action by Moody’s Ratings in February.
Moody’s retained Tanzania at ‘B1’ with a stable outlook.
Together, the two assessments signal confidence among major global rating agencies in the country’s macroeconomic direction.
Tanzania continues to outperform many peers. Real GDP growth is projected at 6 percent in 2026. This is well above the ‘B’-rated median of 4.5 percent.
Economic expansion is being supported by large-scale infrastructure investment.
Flagship projects include the Standard Gauge Railway and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline.
A recovery in tourism and strong gold exports are also supporting growth.
Fitch attributed the stable rating to sustained economic momentum and continued access to concessional financing under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility.
However, the agency warned that risks remain.
Key concerns include weak governance indicators and exposure to external shocks.
Geopolitical tensions affecting fuel and fertiliser supplies were identified as major vulnerabilities.
Structural constraints also persist. The foreign exchange market remains under pressure.
Although revenue collection is improving, the revenue-to-GDP ratio still trails regional peers.
Public debt indicators show gradual improvement.
Tanzania’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 47 percent by 2027, from 50 percent in 2025.
This would keep the country below the ‘B’ median of 54 percent.
External risks remain pronounced. Fitch highlighted the country’s reliance on imports from Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
About 62 percent of fuel imports and 40 percent of fertiliser supplies originate from the region.
Tourism earnings also face uncertainty. A significant share of visitors transit through Gulf hubs.
Disruptions in the region could affect arrivals and revenue flows.
The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2026.
Higher fuel import costs and possible tourism slowdowns are expected to drive this trend.
Travel exports generated $4.4 billion in 2025, accounting for about 25 percent of total exports.
Gold exports reached $4.7 billion, or 27 percent of total exports. These earnings continue to provide an important buffer.
Foreign exchange reserves are expected to cover 2.5 months of external payments during 2026–2027.
This level remains below the ‘B’ median of 4.8 months.
Fiscal policy is expected to remain steady. The budget deficit is projected to stay near 3 percent of GDP in the fiscal years ending June 2026 and 2027.
Increased election-related spending is likely to be balanced by stronger tax performance.
Revenue mobilisation continues to improve. Collections rose from 14.2 percent of GDP in FY2021 to 15.9 percent in FY2025.
Further gains are anticipated under the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy, which aims to support higher spending in healthcare, education and infrastructure.
Despite the stable outlook, Fitch cautioned that debt sustainability remains sensitive to exchange-rate movements.
External debt accounts for about 68 per cent of total obligations.
However, the continued reliance on concessional borrowing provides support to long-term fiscal stability.
